Persons Reported Sick per 100k Customers Served

Our "Persons Reported Sick per 100k Customers" metric is our customer-centric measure. This metric aims to provide a clear picture of food safety risk from the individual customer's perspective, accounting for the actual number of people affected and the total customer base.

How We Calculate It

1. Calculate the Average Check per Customer

   • For some restaurants, this information is available in their 10-K reports.

   • When data is not directly available, we impute it by conducting thorough research:

     • First, we analyze menus by year to understand pricing trends.

     • We then deduce typical consumer spending patterns tailored to each restaurant's style (e.g., whether it's a quick-service spot where customers usually order a drink and meal, or a sit-down restaurant where one might order an appetizer, main course, and dessert, or just one of these options).

   Example: Based on the menu and consumer spending patterns research, Applebee’s average check size in 2022 was $30. We kept the average check size for 2023 the same, as a 2023 article states, “we can see that our guests … still consistently [come] to us and maintain their average check.”

   Our method is customized for each restaurant to reflect the specific offerings and service model. This approach helps us estimate the average check size for the average customer.

2. Estimate Total Customers Served Annually

   • The following formula gives us an approximation of how many customer transactions occurred per year:

   Number of Customers Served Annually = Total US Revenue / Average Check Size

3. Count Persons Reported Sick

   • Importantly, we use the number of persons reported sick, not just the number of reports.

   • A single report might indicate multiple people were affected (e.g., A parent submits a report about food poisoning that impacted their family of five).

   • This approach provides representation of the scale of illnesses.

4. Calculate the Metric

   • The formula looks like this:

   Persons Reported Sick per 100k Customers Served = 
   (Persons Reported Sick / Estimated Total Customers per Year) × 100,000

Why This Metric Matters

This metric is crucial for several reasons:

1. Customer-Centric: It provides a risk assessment from the individual diner's perspective.

2. Accounts for Severity: By counting persons affected rather than just reports, it better reflects the scale of incidents.

3. Normalizes for Customer Volume: It allows fair comparison between high-volume and low-volume establishments.

4. Adaptable to Different Restaurant Types: Our tailored approach to calculating average check size ensures the metric is relevant across various dining styles.

Example Calculations and Metrics - Chili’s Grill & Bar

Description	Source	2021
Average Sales Per Store 000's	10k	$4,350
US Store Count (Company-Owned + Franchise)	10k	1,235
Average Check Per Customer	10k	$15.50
Imputed # US Customers per Year	Calculated	346,596,774
Imputed US Revenue 000's (Company-Owned + Franchise)	Calculated	$5,372,250